Social distancing measures will remain in force until 2022, while the coronavirus will return with seasons until 2025.
These are the conclusions of a recent study published in the journal Science by the Harvard University School of Health.
According to the publication, the infection is likely to resume once the restrictions have been eased. As the days go by and the pandemic spreads, it seems less and less likely that the SarsCoV2 virus will disappear as it did with the Sars virus.
According to experts, the new coronavirus will continue to circulate periodically like the flu virus.
To assess the reliability of this scenario, immunologist Stephen Kissler and his colleagues have developed a mathematical model to calculate the dynamics of infection over the next five years.
All stimuli, both those that predict a one-time quarantine and those that consider social distancing intermittently, indicate that the infection is likely to resume once the restrictions are lifted.
If this happens, for example, in the fall, when the transmission of the virus is greater, a wave of winter infections is expected to take the “place” of the flu virus, increasing the risk of overloading the health system.
According to the study’s authors, in the absence of truly effective medications and vaccines, supervision and social distance may need to be maintained until 2022 to allow hospitals to have time to equip themselves and achieve good immunity. of the population.